VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +59.53 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 8PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 75.5%
Aug 02, 12:02 AMAug 02, 12:17 AMAug 02, 12:32 AMAug 02, 12:47 AMAug 02, 01:01 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02T00:07:58.350Z | 76.5% | 37.7% | -38.8 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:09:51.855Z | 76.5% | 37.7% | -38.8 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:13:09.236Z | 88.5% | 52.8% | -35.7 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:14:48.512Z | 88.5% | 52.8% | -35.7 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:17:18.265Z | 88.5% | 88.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:18:43.133Z | 82.5% | 88.5% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:20:23.205Z | 82.5% | 42.3% | -40.2 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:24:03.555Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:25:42.026Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:28:10.035Z | 85.5% | 39.9% | -45.6 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:30:22.389Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:31:54.903Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:33:12.968Z | 75.5% | 30.4% | -45.1 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:40:13.911Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:40:27.107Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:42:22.813Z | 69.5% | 19.1% | -50.4 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:43:47.744Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:45:10.505Z | 69.5% | 17.7% | -51.8 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:46:02.599Z | 82.5% | 17.7% | -64.8 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:47:15.299Z | 82.5% | 82.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:48:25.525Z | 82.5% | 14.9% | -67.6 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:51:08.663Z | 82.5% | 82.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:51:17.197Z | 50.5% | 82.5% | +32.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:51:39.965Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:53:16.582Z | 69.5% | 5.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:55:57.881Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:56:37.321Z | 75.5% | 50.5% | -25.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T00:57:59.280Z | 50.5% | 0.1% | -50.4 pp |
| 2026-08-02T01:00:33.430Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T01:01:47.457Z | 100.0% | 75.5% | -24.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 17.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 69.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 21.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 59.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 21.1%, gross edge 61.3%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 59.5%. Marx fair UP is 17.7%.