VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +89.93 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 01, 08:00 AMAug 01, 08:16 AMAug 01, 08:32 AMAug 01, 08:48 AMAug 01, 09:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T08:29:07.496Z | 86.5% | 86.8% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:29:22.673Z | 86.5% | 86.8% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:30:08.751Z | 86.5% | 86.8% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:31:06.361Z | 86.5% | 0.0% | -86.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:31:16.861Z | 90.5% | 0.0% | -90.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:32:22.512Z | 86.5% | 86.8% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:33:56.498Z | 86.5% | 0.0% | -86.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:35:22.760Z | 90.5% | 90.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:36:11.986Z | 91.0% | 90.8% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:40:22.885Z | 91.0% | 91.3% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:40:26.767Z | 91.0% | 91.3% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:41:47.612Z | 92.5% | 0.0% | -92.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:42:26.210Z | 91.0% | 0.0% | -91.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:44:02.488Z | 91.0% | 91.3% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:45:10.759Z | 92.5% | 92.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:45:10.896Z | 93.5% | 92.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:46:02.760Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:46:17.404Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:47:20.218Z | 93.5% | 93.8% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:51:58.391Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:52:15.368Z | 98.5% | 0.0% | -98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:52:18.097Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:56:10.428Z | 99.8% | 97.3% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:56:48.749Z | 97.0% | 97.3% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:58:03.623Z | 97.0% | 100.0% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:58:04.067Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:58:09.347Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:59:48.713Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:02:31.318Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:03:54.387Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 91.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 9.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 89.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 9.0%, gross edge 91.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 89.9%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.