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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +45.64 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 5AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY1.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.64 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-9.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Aug 01, 09:00 AMAug 01, 09:16 AMAug 01, 09:32 AMAug 01, 09:48 AMAug 01, 10:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T09:35:46.999Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:37:29.217Z39.5%0.0%-39.5 pp
2026-08-01T09:38:20.326Z39.5%0.0%-39.5 pp
2026-08-01T09:40:32.877Z27.5%27.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:41:43.162Z27.5%27.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:41:50.076Z27.5%27.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:42:10.290Z24.5%0.0%-24.5 pp
2026-08-01T09:42:21.125Z24.5%0.0%-24.5 pp
2026-08-01T09:43:08.786Z17.5%24.5%+7.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:43:52.009Z24.5%24.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:45:05.840Z24.5%0.0%-24.5 pp
2026-08-01T09:46:07.427Z17.5%17.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:46:22.462Z17.5%17.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:47:10.403Z17.5%17.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:48:09.537Z2.0%0.0%-2.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:49:00.830Z17.5%0.0%-17.5 pp
2026-08-01T09:52:42.064Z17.5%2.0%-15.5 pp
2026-08-01T09:52:42.529Z2.0%2.0%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:53:50.142Z17.5%17.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:55:25.009Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:56:53.591Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:56:55.089Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T09:58:26.696Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-08-01T09:58:39.052Z0.2%0.0%-0.2 pp
2026-08-01T10:00:21.524Z0.2%0.2%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T10:00:25.824Z0.2%0.2%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T10:01:29.186Z0.1%0.2%+0.1 pp
2026-08-01T10:02:45.843Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T10:02:48.971Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T10:04:15.546Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 1.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.6%, gross edge 48.9%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.0%. Marx fair UP is 1.1%.

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +45.64 pp Edge | AntiPredict