VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +49.50 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 6PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 14.0%
Jul 31, 10:00 PMJul 31, 10:16 PMJul 31, 10:32 PMJul 31, 10:48 PMJul 31, 11:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T22:40:58.363Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:42:30.190Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:42:32.410Z | 58.5% | 0.0% | -58.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:45:26.880Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:45:39.149Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:45:48.610Z | 54.5% | 58.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:46:43.933Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:46:47.799Z | 63.5% | 54.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:47:47.596Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:49:25.393Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:51:28.402Z | 21.5% | 63.5% | +42.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:53:08.342Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:55:47.470Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:55:48.202Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:57:16.546Z | 21.5% | 0.0% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:57:20.688Z | 21.5% | 0.0% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:57:46.018Z | 14.0% | 0.0% | -14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:58:55.909Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:59:40.831Z | 14.0% | 14.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:59:41.052Z | 14.0% | 14.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:00:40.882Z | 14.0% | 10.5% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:01:06.078Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:01:39.230Z | 14.0% | 14.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:01:42.441Z | 10.5% | 14.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:02:16.617Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:03:28.806Z | 14.0% | 99.5% | +85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:03:43.144Z | 14.0% | 99.5% | +85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:04:08.499Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:04:40.728Z | 14.0% | 14.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:04:40.733Z | 100.0% | 14.0% | -86.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 53.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 48.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 48.7%, gross edge 53.0%, slippage 1.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.