VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +48.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 8AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 31, 12:00 PMJul 31, 12:15 PMJul 31, 12:31 PMJul 31, 12:47 PMJul 31, 01:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T12:40:45.133Z | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:41:50.479Z | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:41:52.931Z | 10.5% | 6.5% | -4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:42:41.313Z | 6.5% | 0.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:44:48.931Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:44:51.829Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:45:47.404Z | 5.5% | 10.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:46:46.095Z | 6.5% | 0.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:48:53.638Z | 4.5% | 4.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:49:52.620Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:49:52.952Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:51:12.017Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:52:55.789Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:52:57.057Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:54:39.973Z | 8.6% | 5.5% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:55:25.468Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:55:45.674Z | 8.6% | 5.5% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:56:45.658Z | 8.6% | 8.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:57:26.408Z | 5.5% | 8.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:58:32.067Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:58:32.271Z | 3.9% | 0.0% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:59:12.111Z | 3.9% | 0.0% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:59:17.365Z | 3.9% | 0.0% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-07-31T12:59:24.958Z | 3.9% | 3.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:00:02.358Z | 0.5% | 3.9% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:00:43.311Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:00:44.542Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:02:13.444Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:02:13.877Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T13:02:56.710Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.