VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +12.80 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 29, 10:00 PMJul 29, 10:16 PMJul 29, 10:32 PMJul 29, 10:48 PMJul 29, 11:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T22:47:42.943Z | 92.5% | 94.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:47:59.799Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:48:16.511Z | 94.5% | 97.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:48:21.912Z | 92.5% | 97.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:48:50.882Z | 92.5% | 97.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:49:54.798Z | 85.5% | 97.2% | +11.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:51:16.952Z | 84.5% | 97.2% | +12.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:51:47.842Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:51:57.174Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:52:42.247Z | 85.5% | 98.4% | +12.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:53:17.812Z | 85.5% | 98.4% | +12.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:53:43.106Z | 85.5% | 98.4% | +12.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:54:42.647Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:54:55.452Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:55:15.754Z | 85.5% | 99.1% | +13.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:55:42.708Z | 93.5% | 99.1% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:55:53.981Z | 93.5% | 99.1% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:56:54.754Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:57:21.814Z | 93.5% | 99.9% | +6.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:57:22.768Z | 93.5% | 99.9% | +6.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:58:55.218Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:59:11.230Z | 93.5% | 100.0% | +6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:00:46.903Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:00:55.419Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:01:25.203Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:01:48.837Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:02:44.234Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:02:54.886Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:03:58.447Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:04:50.473Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 32.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 15.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.8%. Marx fair UP is 32.0%.