VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +45.60 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 02:00 PMJul 29, 02:16 PMJul 29, 02:32 PMJul 29, 02:47 PMJul 29, 03:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T14:44:18.109Z | 1.3% | 100.0% | +98.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:44:44.157Z | 1.3% | 100.0% | +98.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:45:42.470Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:45:56.708Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:46:22.774Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:48:00.167Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:48:15.582Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:49:56.192Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:50:18.493Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:51:38.327Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:51:45.719Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:51:52.929Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:52:43.657Z | 0.1% | 0.5% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:52:45.422Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:52:54.232Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:53:24.040Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:53:26.004Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:54:51.589Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:55:17.852Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:56:51.327Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:57:16.779Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:57:41.928Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:58:41.828Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:58:53.090Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:59:21.329Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:59:42.456Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:00:41.804Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:00:52.839Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:01:18.070Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:03:14.105Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.