VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +48.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 4AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 08:00 AMJul 29, 08:16 AMJul 29, 08:32 AMJul 29, 08:48 AMJul 29, 09:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T08:47:13.019Z | 1.8% | 100.0% | +98.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:47:13.673Z | 1.8% | 100.0% | +98.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:47:46.945Z | 1.8% | 100.0% | +98.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:48:39.425Z | 1.8% | 1.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:48:50.374Z | 1.8% | 1.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:49:14.283Z | 1.8% | 100.0% | +98.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:49:40.543Z | 1.8% | 100.0% | +98.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:50:41.420Z | 4.9% | 1.8% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:50:52.815Z | 1.8% | 1.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:51:02.059Z | 4.9% | 4.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:51:08.450Z | 4.9% | 100.0% | +95.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:51:42.729Z | 4.9% | 100.0% | +95.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:52:43.476Z | 4.9% | 4.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:52:50.988Z | 4.9% | 4.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:53:11.077Z | 4.9% | 100.0% | +95.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:53:40.274Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:54:45.849Z | 4.9% | 4.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:55:09.455Z | 4.9% | 100.0% | +95.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:56:42.226Z | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:56:51.695Z | 0.7% | 0.7% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:57:08.030Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:58:00.527Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T08:58:52.708Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:00:02.882Z | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:01:02.040Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:01:12.679Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:01:42.913Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:02:47.246Z | 0.1% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:03:47.704Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T09:03:54.904Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.6%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.1%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.