VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +40.17 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 25.4%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 10:30 PMJul 29, 10:35 PMJul 29, 10:39 PMJul 29, 10:44 PMJul 29, 10:48 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T22:33:05.082Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:33:14.331Z | 26.5% | 91.3% | +64.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:33:54.104Z | 23.5% | 91.3% | +67.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:34:44.770Z | 49.5% | 91.3% | +41.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:36:00.470Z | 21.5% | 87.5% | +66.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:36:18.457Z | 23.5% | 87.5% | +64.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:36:50.844Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:37:02.120Z | 14.5% | 14.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:37:48.307Z | 14.5% | 91.9% | +77.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:38:23.577Z | 14.5% | 91.9% | +77.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:38:46.636Z | 14.5% | 91.9% | +77.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:39:42.341Z | 5.5% | 8.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:39:59.516Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:40:19.280Z | 8.5% | 94.5% | +86.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:40:43.692Z | 3.5% | 94.5% | +91.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:41:42.240Z | 2.5% | 3.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:41:58.333Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:42:11.082Z | 2.5% | 95.6% | +93.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:42:42.904Z | 2.5% | 95.6% | +93.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:43:43.590Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:43:55.630Z | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:44:17.222Z | 12.5% | 100.0% | +87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:44:42.493Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:45:43.424Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:45:54.775Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:46:17.918Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:46:42.476Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:47:42.943Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:48:12.879Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:48:50.882Z | 25.4% | 0.1% | -25.4 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 92.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 40.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 44.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.0%. Marx fair UP is 94.3%.