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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.98 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%49.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.98 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 55.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 08:00 PMJul 29, 08:05 PMJul 29, 08:10 PMJul 29, 08:14 PMJul 29, 08:19 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T20:03:54.150Z39.5%39.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:03:56.657Z38.5%39.5%+1.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:04:15.519Z38.5%38.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:04:31.224Z38.5%0.0%-38.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:05:45.382Z45.5%0.0%-45.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:07:31.817Z45.5%45.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:07:44.741Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:07:55.962Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:08:44.272Z6.5%0.0%-6.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:09:31.074Z44.5%0.0%-44.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:09:45.244Z6.5%0.0%-6.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:10:03.702Z6.5%0.0%-6.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:10:42.645Z6.5%6.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:10:54.452Z6.5%6.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:11:44.055Z3.5%0.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:12:18.139Z6.5%0.0%-6.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:12:37.306Z3.5%0.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:12:42.332Z3.5%0.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:13:42.187Z58.5%52.5%-6.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:13:55.021Z52.5%52.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:14:22.284Z52.5%0.0%-52.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:14:46.267Z52.5%0.0%-52.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:15:42.209Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:15:52.629Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:16:17.882Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:16:42.222Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-29T20:17:44.155Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:18:14.332Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:18:47.197Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T20:19:50.559Z55.5%99.5%+44.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 50.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.8%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.98 pp Edge | AntiPredict