VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.32 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 03:30 PMJul 29, 03:35 PMJul 29, 03:40 PMJul 29, 03:44 PMJul 29, 03:49 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T15:33:49.005Z | 47.5% | 50.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:33:49.202Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:33:59.702Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:34:18.371Z | 47.5% | 96.5% | +49.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:34:43.672Z | 47.5% | 96.5% | +49.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:36:31.653Z | 73.5% | 97.9% | +24.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:36:42.308Z | 42.5% | 97.9% | +55.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:37:44.925Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:37:57.830Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:38:42.002Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:39:21.454Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:39:42.268Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:40:42.029Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:40:49.990Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:41:18.739Z | 66.5% | 92.6% | +26.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:41:42.246Z | 13.5% | 92.6% | +79.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:42:43.349Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:42:54.642Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:43:18.298Z | 13.5% | 99.9% | +86.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:43:42.020Z | 13.5% | 99.9% | +86.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:44:41.967Z | 0.1% | 13.5% | +13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:44:51.143Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:45:09.663Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:45:15.899Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:45:42.171Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:46:42.829Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:46:53.386Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:47:42.364Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:48:46.817Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T15:49:48.120Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 94.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 43.7%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.3%. Marx fair UP is 94.7%.