VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.07 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 12:45 AMJul 29, 12:50 AMJul 29, 12:54 AMJul 29, 12:58 AMJul 29, 01:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T00:45:39.882Z | 70.5% | 100.0% | +29.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:46:44.060Z | 70.5% | 100.0% | +29.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:48:07.451Z | 70.5% | 100.0% | +29.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:48:41.981Z | 70.5% | 100.0% | +29.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:49:46.108Z | 30.5% | 100.0% | +69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:50:41.238Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:50:44.117Z | 30.5% | 100.0% | +69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:51:43.377Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:52:45.968Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:53:41.232Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:54:41.970Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:55:42.167Z | 34.5% | 0.1% | -34.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:56:41.255Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:59:46.037Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T00:59:53.466Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:00:38.604Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:00:42.756Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:01:43.016Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:02:51.884Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:03:12.638Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 94.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.5%, gross edge 46.1%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 43.3%. Marx fair UP is 96.1%.