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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 09:31 PMJul 28, 09:35 PMJul 28, 09:39 PMJul 28, 09:43 PMJul 28, 09:47 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T21:31:00.036Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:31:20.322Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:31:38.836Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:32:41.986Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:33:41.707Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:34:41.780Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:35:41.311Z92.5%0.0%-92.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:36:40.841Z98.5%0.0%-98.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:41:38.847Z98.5%0.0%-98.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:42:47.712Z98.5%0.0%-98.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:43:59.856Z100.0%0.0%-99.9 pp
2026-07-28T21:44:41.682Z100.0%0.0%-99.9 pp
2026-07-28T21:45:41.029Z100.0%0.0%-99.9 pp
2026-07-28T21:46:21.067Z100.0%0.0%-99.9 pp
2026-07-28T21:46:39.925Z100.0%0.0%-99.9 pp
2026-07-28T21:47:15.868Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 8.0%, gross edge 93.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 0.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 91.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict