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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +31.93 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%66.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+31.93 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 08:30 PMJul 28, 08:35 PMJul 28, 08:39 PMJul 28, 08:43 PMJul 28, 08:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T20:30:44.045Z55.5%0.0%-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:31:16.503Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:34:41.708Z55.5%0.0%-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:35:40.142Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:36:43.436Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:37:41.960Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:38:43.281Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:39:41.606Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:40:41.851Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:41:39.018Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:42:50.259Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:43:43.526Z96.5%0.0%-96.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:44:41.593Z93.5%0.0%-93.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:45:42.836Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:46:18.199Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:48:20.766Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 66.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 31.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 68.0%, gross edge 32.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +31.93 pp Edge | AntiPredict