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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.98 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%68.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+29.98 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN43.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 11.5%Marx Fair UP 11.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 07:16 PMJul 28, 07:20 PMJul 28, 07:25 PMJul 28, 07:29 PMJul 28, 07:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T19:16:04.218Z29.5%0.0%-29.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:16:21.211Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:20:40.177Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:24:41.100Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:25:38.593Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:26:40.719Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:27:46.305Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:28:43.799Z18.5%0.0%-18.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:29:42.062Z3.0%0.0%-3.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:29:52.685Z5.5%0.0%-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:30:02.137Z3.0%0.0%-3.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:30:38.688Z5.5%0.0%-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:30:42.898Z5.5%0.0%-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:31:39.049Z5.5%0.0%-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T19:32:42.337Z5.5%5.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:32:52.841Z5.5%5.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:33:41.359Z11.5%11.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:34:11.978Z11.5%11.5%-0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 68.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 73.0%, gross edge 27.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 25.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +29.98 pp Edge | AntiPredict