VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +85.08 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 07:00 PMJul 28, 07:04 PMJul 28, 07:09 PMJul 28, 07:13 PMJul 28, 07:17 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T19:00:40.556Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:01:18.508Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:01:38.453Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:02:42.393Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:03:43.108Z | 90.5% | 0.0% | -90.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:04:40.992Z | 90.5% | 0.0% | -90.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:05:41.325Z | 92.5% | 0.0% | -92.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:06:40.200Z | 61.5% | 0.0% | -61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:09:40.632Z | 61.5% | 0.0% | -61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:10:38.752Z | 95.5% | 0.0% | -95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:12:46.165Z | 95.5% | 0.0% | -95.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:13:54.963Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:14:41.879Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:15:38.931Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:16:20.942Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:16:40.203Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:17:16.012Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:17:44.653Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 73.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 13.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 85.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 13.6%, gross edge 87.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 0.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 85.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.