VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.98 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 9.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 06:45 PMJul 28, 06:50 PMJul 28, 06:55 PMJul 28, 06:59 PMJul 28, 07:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T18:45:29.667Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:46:28.164Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:47:28.248Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:48:21.878Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:48:22.588Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:48:29.466Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:49:29.277Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:50:28.280Z | 61.5% | 0.0% | -61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:51:27.986Z | 61.5% | 0.0% | -61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:52:27.913Z | 61.5% | 0.0% | -61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:53:31.685Z | 61.5% | 0.0% | -61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:54:58.942Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:55:05.841Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:55:28.109Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:56:28.207Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:58:48.152Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:58:49.446Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:58:58.340Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:59:40.605Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:00:09.479Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:00:40.556Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:01:38.453Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:02:42.393Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:02:46.983Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:03:43.108Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T19:04:40.992Z | 9.5% | 0.5% | -9.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 9.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 92.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 92.0%, gross edge 8.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.