VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +72.15 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 05:45 PMJul 28, 05:49 PMJul 28, 05:53 PMJul 28, 05:58 PMJul 28, 06:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T17:45:12.574Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:45:51.755Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:46:16.309Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:47:18.587Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:48:16.111Z | 55.5% | 0.0% | -55.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:49:16.300Z | 88.5% | 0.0% | -88.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:50:19.336Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:51:19.682Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:52:16.669Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:53:32.596Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:54:34.516Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:55:15.844Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:55:43.039Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:56:11.410Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:56:25.385Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:57:15.780Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:58:19.950Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:59:24.726Z | 99.9% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:01:51.076Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T18:02:42.167Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 55.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 26.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 72.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 25.2%, gross edge 75.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 73.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.