VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.61 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 29, 01:00 AMJul 29, 01:05 AMJul 29, 01:10 AMJul 29, 01:14 AMJul 29, 01:19 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T01:00:39.825Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:00:42.756Z | 40.5% | 100.0% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:01:43.016Z | 40.5% | 100.0% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:03:02.913Z | 40.5% | 48.6% | +8.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:03:42.686Z | 40.5% | 48.6% | +8.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:04:42.472Z | 40.5% | 48.6% | +8.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:04:44.273Z | 48.5% | 48.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:04:47.838Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:05:44.504Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:06:38.963Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:07:48.767Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:08:42.037Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:09:41.135Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:10:54.321Z | 6.5% | 51.6% | +45.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:11:40.913Z | 0.5% | 51.6% | +51.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:14:17.521Z | 0.1% | 51.6% | +51.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:14:22.658Z | 0.1% | 51.6% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:14:48.309Z | 0.1% | 51.6% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:14:49.793Z | 51.5% | 51.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:14:58.581Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:15:27.895Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:15:52.176Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:16:39.125Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:17:27.537Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:18:11.262Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:18:41.872Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T01:19:42.422Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 70.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 21.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 19.6%. Marx fair UP is 72.8%.