VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.51 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 05:16 PMJul 28, 05:20 PMJul 28, 05:25 PMJul 28, 05:29 PMJul 28, 05:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T17:16:15.664Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:17:16.502Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:18:16.351Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:19:16.595Z | 21.5% | 0.0% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:20:15.986Z | 21.5% | 0.0% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:21:15.801Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:22:05.716Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:22:15.806Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:23:15.845Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:24:16.125Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:25:15.989Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:26:15.794Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:27:16.142Z | 64.5% | 0.0% | -64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:28:15.864Z | 10.5% | 0.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:28:48.686Z | 10.5% | 0.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:29:43.605Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:29:59.885Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:30:19.902Z | 0.5% | 20.5% | +20.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:30:24.413Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:30:31.461Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:30:38.851Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:31:15.585Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:32:15.801Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:33:02.649Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:33:15.880Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T17:34:15.624Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 52.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 83.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 15.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 85.0%, gross edge 15.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 13.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.