VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +27.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 10.5%
Jul 29, 03:15 AMJul 29, 03:20 AMJul 29, 03:25 AMJul 29, 03:30 AMJul 29, 03:34 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T03:18:45.233Z | 38.5% | 38.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:19:00.695Z | 38.5% | 100.0% | +61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:19:38.933Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:20:57.698Z | 27.5% | 27.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:21:00.818Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:21:43.423Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:22:41.725Z | 27.5% | 38.6% | +11.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:22:44.932Z | 38.5% | 38.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:22:55.451Z | 27.5% | 27.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:22:59.399Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:23:41.576Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:24:38.947Z | 27.5% | 27.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:24:48.482Z | 27.5% | 27.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:25:00.417Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:25:43.247Z | 9.5% | 100.0% | +90.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:26:38.750Z | 9.5% | 9.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:26:49.280Z | 9.5% | 9.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:27:01.343Z | 9.5% | 100.0% | +90.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:27:57.695Z | 9.5% | 100.0% | +90.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:29:04.026Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:29:42.137Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:30:39.678Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:30:55.238Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:31:01.094Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:31:40.929Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:32:46.826Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:32:54.390Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:33:41.328Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:34:38.862Z | 0.5% | 10.5% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:34:58.397Z | 0.5% | 10.5% | +10.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 81.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 27.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 29.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.3%. Marx fair UP is 80.6%.