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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 73.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 04:30 PMJul 28, 04:35 PMJul 28, 04:40 PMJul 28, 04:44 PMJul 28, 04:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T16:31:55.433Z32.5%0.0%-32.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:32:31.323Z32.5%0.0%-32.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:33:25.818Z32.5%32.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:33:35.734Z32.5%32.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:33:57.072Z32.5%0.0%-32.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:34:25.950Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:35:25.600Z35.5%50.5%+15.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:35:39.588Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:35:44.297Z35.5%35.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:35:56.288Z35.5%0.0%-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:35:57.369Z35.5%0.0%-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:36:25.739Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:37:27.693Z30.5%30.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:37:33.731Z30.5%30.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:37:55.524Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:38:25.761Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:39:26.852Z73.5%30.5%-43.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:39:34.030Z30.5%30.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:39:56.394Z30.5%0.0%-30.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:41:39.403Z73.5%73.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:41:56.616Z73.5%0.0%-73.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:42:33.430Z73.5%0.0%-73.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:43:53.652Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:44:26.837Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:45:26.073Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:46:25.962Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:47:28.674Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:47:37.591Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:48:27.722Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:49:25.690Z73.5%99.5%+26.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict