VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.19 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 40.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.2%. Marx fair UP is 40.6%.