VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.8%
Jul 28, 12:45 PMJul 28, 12:50 PMJul 28, 12:54 PMJul 28, 12:59 PMJul 28, 01:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T12:47:04.895Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:47:33.694Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:48:31.050Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:48:37.588Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:49:04.159Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:49:34.072Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:50:31.420Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:50:46.856Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:51:13.337Z | 70.5% | 0.0% | -70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:51:31.004Z | 70.5% | 0.0% | -70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:37.828Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:45.793Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:58.181Z | 70.5% | 0.0% | -70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:58.843Z | 70.5% | 0.0% | -70.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:54:02.802Z | 80.5% | 80.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:54:42.466Z | 80.5% | 80.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:55:32.556Z | 80.5% | 0.0% | -80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:57:09.994Z | 80.5% | 80.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:58:03.703Z | 80.5% | 0.0% | -80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:58:04.177Z | 80.5% | 0.0% | -80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:08.403Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:30.931Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:35.328Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:56.117Z | 99.9% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:00:31.100Z | 99.9% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:32.605Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:40.211Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:02:32.327Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:03:30.934Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:04:30.927Z | 100.0% | 99.8% | -0.1 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.