VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 92.5%Marx Fair UP 97.5%
Jul 28, 01:45 PMJul 28, 01:49 PMJul 28, 01:54 PMJul 28, 01:59 PMJul 28, 02:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T13:49:01.336Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:49:30.955Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:50:30.944Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:50:40.079Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:51:00.814Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:51:01.149Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:51:30.915Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:52:34.522Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:52:41.682Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:52:57.512Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:54:05.631Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:54:32.828Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:54:42.564Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:55:30.879Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:55:39.711Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:56:32.014Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:57:15.139Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:57:31.134Z | 54.5% | 54.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:57:58.394Z | 54.5% | 0.0% | -54.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:58:31.095Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:30.938Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:40.093Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:56.489Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:56.942Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:00:30.980Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:01:30.828Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:01:37.792Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:02:30.926Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:03:30.880Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T14:04:30.891Z | 92.5% | 97.5% | +5.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.