VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 28, 11:46 AMJul 28, 11:50 AMJul 28, 11:55 AMJul 28, 11:59 AMJul 28, 12:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T11:46:34.566Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:55.008Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:57.818Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:47:32.144Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:30.857Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:43.999Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:57.736Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:49:30.934Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:50:30.887Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:50:35.985Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:50:59.682Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:51:32.448Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:52:34.035Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:52:40.204Z | 93.5% | 93.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:53:02.927Z | 93.5% | 0.0% | -93.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:13.140Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:30.984Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:37.725Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:55:30.967Z | 91.5% | 0.0% | -91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:55:44.942Z | 91.5% | 0.0% | -91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:56:32.493Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:19.530Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:31.055Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:58.564Z | 91.5% | 0.0% | -91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:58:31.089Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:59:39.842Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:00:07.162Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:01:39.846Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:03:32.695Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:04:31.175Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.