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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +88.64 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY62.5%10.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+88.64 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 02:45 AMJul 28, 02:49 AMJul 28, 02:54 AMJul 28, 02:58 AMJul 28, 03:02 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T02:45:31.316Z60.5%60.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:45:40.385Z60.5%60.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:45:42.130Z60.5%0.0%-60.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:46:32.241Z60.5%0.0%-60.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:47:31.213Z60.5%60.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:47:35.452Z60.5%60.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:47:47.506Z60.5%0.0%-60.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:47:47.766Z60.5%0.0%-60.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:48:32.204Z60.5%0.0%-60.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:49:31.141Z60.5%60.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:49:39.524Z60.5%60.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:49:41.877Z60.5%0.0%-60.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:50:32.147Z45.5%0.0%-45.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:51:31.095Z45.5%45.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:51:34.474Z45.5%45.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:51:40.196Z62.5%0.0%-62.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:52:33.658Z65.5%0.0%-65.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:53:49.280Z91.5%0.0%-91.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:54:32.261Z91.5%0.0%-91.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:55:32.103Z88.5%0.0%-88.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:56:32.370Z88.5%0.0%-88.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:57:31.444Z91.5%100.0%+8.5 pp
2026-07-28T02:58:32.222Z99.9%100.0%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T02:59:31.272Z99.9%100.0%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T03:00:32.298Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:01:31.129Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:01:38.183Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T03:02:32.337Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 62.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 10.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 88.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 10.2%, gross edge 91.0%, slippage 1.2%, fee 0.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 88.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +88.64 pp Edge | AntiPredict