VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.07 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 17.5%
Jul 28, 12:15 AMJul 28, 12:19 AMJul 28, 12:24 AMJul 28, 12:29 AMJul 28, 12:34 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T00:19:39.251Z | 80.5% | 80.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:19:51.605Z | 80.5% | 0.0% | -80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:20:30.791Z | 89.5% | 0.0% | -89.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:21:30.749Z | 80.5% | 89.5% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:21:34.167Z | 89.5% | 89.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:21:38.509Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:21:44.273Z | 89.5% | 89.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:21:54.032Z | 80.5% | 0.0% | -80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:22:43.602Z | 80.5% | 0.0% | -80.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:23:33.653Z | 36.5% | 45.5% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:23:39.736Z | 45.5% | 45.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:23:50.938Z | 45.5% | 0.0% | -45.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:24:30.826Z | 32.5% | 0.0% | -32.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:25:30.742Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:25:39.891Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:25:51.801Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:26:30.848Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:27:32.353Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:27:34.749Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:27:50.528Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:28:30.851Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:29:30.785Z | 97.5% | 46.5% | -51.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:29:39.707Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:29:49.749Z | 46.5% | 0.0% | -46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:30:30.741Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:31:30.825Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:31:34.272Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:32:33.735Z | 17.5% | 99.5% | +82.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:33:49.944Z | 17.5% | 17.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T00:34:30.827Z | 99.5% | 17.5% | -82.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.