Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Rybakina
Ends: Aug 18, 2026, 14:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 12, 2026, 05:16 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
OSAKA probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12T01:54:42.677Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T01:59:47.149Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:04:53.950Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:09:56.813Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:15:08.912Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:20:13.603Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:25:15.523Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:30:17.507Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:35:23.708Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:40:33.849Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:45:43.989Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:50:48.475Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T02:55:53.725Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:00:56.830Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:05:58.402Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:11:01.525Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:16:06.604Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:21:08.372Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:26:18.538Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:31:23.377Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:36:28.444Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:41:38.861Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T03:58:31.780Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T04:03:33.491Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T04:08:43.097Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T04:14:25.346Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T04:19:33.724Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T04:24:39.598Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T05:13:39.927Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T05:16:50.244Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Elena Rybakina in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Osaka” if Naomi Osaka wins the first set. It will resolve to “Rybakina” if Elena Rybakina wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.