Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?
Ends: OpenMarket data: Aug 17, 2026, 02:31 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17T01:33:29.889Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T01:38:33.194Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T01:45:31.530Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T01:50:42.673Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T01:56:22.540Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T02:09:30.831Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T02:18:10.484Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T02:23:19.366Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T02:30:47.765Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T02:31:01.411Z | 0.3% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.