Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5?
Ends: Aug 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 05:05 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T03:28:04.474Z | 46.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:31:04.575Z | 46.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:32:04.538Z | 46.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:35:17.191Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:37:06.103Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:39:04.452Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:41:04.466Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:44:04.508Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:50:07.718Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:53:04.487Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:55:04.526Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:59:04.550Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:05:06.922Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:08:06.401Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:13:16.434Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:15:04.711Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:18:06.235Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:23:07.405Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:24:04.751Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:30:06.103Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:34:11.746Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:37:16.828Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:38:04.888Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:43:04.831Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:48:06.454Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:53:04.583Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:54:04.573Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:00:07.542Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:05:11.731Z | 59.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:05:46.517Z | 59.0% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.