Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5?
Ends: Aug 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 05:05 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T00:50:02.429Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:56:04.523Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:04:06.270Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:13:06.154Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:21:59.123Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:31:16.785Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:40:04.497Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:51:14.339Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:58:04.460Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T02:07:00.922Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T02:16:04.535Z | 67.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T02:25:04.463Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T02:34:10.662Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T02:45:04.431Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T02:53:04.646Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:04:32.846Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:11:04.588Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:19:23.763Z | 65.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:31:04.575Z | 46.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:38:04.613Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:50:07.718Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:59:04.550Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:05:06.922Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:14:06.233Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:23:07.405Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:34:11.746Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:43:04.831Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:53:04.583Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:00:07.542Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T05:05:46.517Z | 59.0% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.