Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on August 6?
Ends: Aug 6, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 6, 2026, 10:40 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T09:44:12.511Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T09:49:17.164Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T09:54:27.394Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T09:59:32.299Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T10:04:36.139Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T10:09:48.003Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T10:14:50.566Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T10:20:02.688Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T10:25:07.638Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T10:30:12.404Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T10:35:16.386Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T10:40:22.464Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T10:40:54.247Z | 0.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.