Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 01:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T22:54:06.842Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:59:10.826Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:04:16.718Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:09:32.253Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:14:37.451Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:19:47.615Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:24:56.731Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:30:01.921Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:35:07.651Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:40:16.359Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:45:21.312Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:50:26.687Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:55:36.562Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:00:46.676Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:06:22.789Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:11:26.894Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:16:36.847Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:22:07.329Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:27:11.244Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:32:16.678Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:37:31.431Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:42:36.425Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:47:41.563Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:52:47.215Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:57:56.678Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:03:01.770Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:08:07.770Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:13:16.536Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:18:26.559Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:20:39.745Z | 1.2% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.