Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 01:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T19:58:25.177Z | 2.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:31:28.216Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:03:01.325Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:33:01.474Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T10:54:49.826Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:43:51.099Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:17:45.985Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:47:51.641Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:24:26.231Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:54:57.831Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:23:31.809Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:54:42.594Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T20:23:13.883Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T00:56:37.321Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T05:29:45.647Z | 0.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T10:03:19.192Z | 0.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T14:31:18.218Z | 0.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T19:08:44.618Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T23:36:34.838Z | 0.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T04:07:38.527Z | 0.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T08:44:07.396Z | 0.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T13:08:35.977Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T17:40:53.806Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T22:13:46.289Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T02:51:11.389Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T07:20:52.103Z | 2.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T11:48:21.975Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T16:22:45.112Z | 1.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T20:53:55.113Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:20:39.745Z | 1.2% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.