Fight to Go the Distance?
Ends: Aug 16, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 15, 2026, 04:39 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15T03:41:35.201Z | 55.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T03:50:54.236Z | 55.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T03:56:01.715Z | 55.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T04:16:51.369Z | 55.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T04:21:55.893Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T04:27:02.153Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T04:32:14.382Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T04:37:19.658Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T04:39:16.588Z | 54.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.