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Crypto · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?

Ends: Jul 29, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 29, 2026, 07:32 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET UP 74.5%MARX FAIR UP -
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 27, 08:23 PMJul 28, 05:10 AMJul 28, 01:57 PMJul 28, 10:45 PMJul 29, 07:32 AM UTC

UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T03:00:42.581Z51.5%-—
2026-07-29T03:04:39.933Z51.5%-—
2026-07-29T03:14:38.902Z51.5%-—
2026-07-29T03:23:41.576Z48.5%-—
2026-07-29T03:29:42.137Z44.5%-—
2026-07-29T03:38:38.942Z43.5%-—
2026-07-29T03:44:11.063Z43.5%-—
2026-07-29T03:51:38.987Z42.5%-—
2026-07-29T04:04:50.999Z39.5%-—
2026-07-29T04:08:41.719Z38.5%-—
2026-07-29T04:19:38.813Z39.5%-—
2026-07-29T04:24:40.779Z44.5%-—
2026-07-29T04:41:41.415Z49.0%-—
2026-07-29T04:49:38.955Z49.5%-—
2026-07-29T05:03:38.798Z51.5%-—
2026-07-29T05:15:40.083Z53.5%-—
2026-07-29T05:24:41.129Z51.5%-—
2026-07-29T05:28:41.007Z51.5%-—
2026-07-29T05:41:39.054Z54.5%-—
2026-07-29T05:49:52.390Z54.5%-—
2026-07-29T06:01:39.107Z56.5%-—
2026-07-29T06:09:46.565Z56.5%-—
2026-07-29T06:18:39.881Z58.5%-—
2026-07-29T06:24:39.059Z61.5%-—
2026-07-29T06:34:42.001Z72.0%-—
2026-07-29T06:43:38.871Z74.5%-—
2026-07-29T06:54:40.293Z73.5%-—
2026-07-29T07:04:41.463Z74.5%-—
2026-07-29T07:30:07.384Z74.5%-—
2026-07-29T07:32:15.533Z74.5%-—

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

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