Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?
Ends: Jul 29, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 29, 2026, 07:33 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T03:39:41.152Z | 45.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:44:11.063Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:50:42.735Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:54:38.890Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:06:41.963Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:09:38.707Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:19:38.813Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:24:40.779Z | 44.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:38:38.750Z | 46.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:44:06.048Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:59:46.199Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:03:38.798Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:15:40.083Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:19:38.920Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:26:41.089Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:34:41.561Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:42:50.922Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:54:56.346Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:00:42.062Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:04:41.421Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:16:41.274Z | 58.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:19:38.932Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:29:41.813Z | 72.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:34:42.001Z | 72.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:42:47.619Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:52:43.344Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:03:16.528Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:09:46.409Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:30:07.384Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:33:35.721Z | 74.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.