Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?
Ends: Jul 29, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 29, 2026, 06:28 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T02:29:40.588Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T02:33:38.901Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T02:37:42.565Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T02:50:52.098Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T02:54:38.971Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:02:44.889Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:12:58.307Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:19:38.932Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:27:57.695Z | 48.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:36:39.249Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:40:42.271Z | 45.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:49:38.993Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:53:38.794Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:05:40.264Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:14:40.546Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:21:38.761Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:34:41.113Z | 46.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:42:47.229Z | 49.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:54:39.735Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:04:41.186Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:16:40.986Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:24:41.129Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:29:38.982Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:41:39.054Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:54:56.346Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:01:39.107Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:09:46.565Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:18:39.881Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:24:39.059Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:28:30.632Z | 61.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.