Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 11:35 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T08:27:42.541Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:32:54.858Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:39:31.546Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:45:17.708Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:52:15.372Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:00:16.913Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:08:14.043Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:17:14.238Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:24:29.106Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:30:26.094Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:36:01.031Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:41:56.059Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:47:04.608Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:55:30.802Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:01:38.956Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:10:02.655Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:15:43.035Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:26:55.878Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:32:50.801Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:38:37.388Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:44:07.772Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:49:29.382Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:55:39.888Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:00:43.038Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:10:02.166Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:16:38.763Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:23:31.809Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:28:45.746Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:35:24.778Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:35:37.712Z | 4.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.