Will Nikolai Denkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Ends: Oct 25, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 27, 2026, 16:29 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26T17:47:35.397Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T18:58:35.015Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-26T23:55:23.372Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T03:56:56.776Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T08:50:14.880Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T13:10:08.177Z | 0.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.