Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 16:32 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T15:35:54.250Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T15:41:18.175Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T15:46:33.419Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T15:51:44.533Z | 19.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T15:58:30.450Z | 19.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:03:42.503Z | 19.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:08:53.328Z | 19.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:14:10.609Z | 19.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:19:21.220Z | 19.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:24:37.621Z | 19.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:29:41.837Z | 19.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:32:54.708Z | 19.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.