Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Ends: Jul 1, 2027, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 09:10 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T04:53:36.203Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T04:59:16.717Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T05:09:36.632Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T05:20:00.012Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T05:30:16.310Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T05:35:26.378Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T05:45:45.416Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T05:55:58.244Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:06:15.559Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:13:14.093Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:23:30.090Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:33:40.675Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:38:49.105Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:48:58.993Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:59:20.375Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:09:29.748Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:14:38.434Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:24:54.054Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:35:03.997Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:45:19.640Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:55:39.125Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:00:45.111Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:11:04.300Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:21:20.703Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:27:56.165Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:38:05.776Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:48:20.250Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:58:30.926Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T09:03:36.585Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T09:10:26.948Z | 9.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.