Istanbul 2: Lucas Poullain vs Alexandr Binda
Ends: Aug 12, 2026, 08:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 6, 2026, 14:43 UTCResult: LUCAS POULLAINResolved: Aug 6, 2026, 14:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
LUCAS POULLAIN probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T13:13:35.829Z | 83.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T14:00:01.874Z | 96.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Lucas Poullain and Alexandr Binda in the Istanbul 2, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lucas Poullain' if Lucas Poullain advances against Alexandr Binda. This market will resolve to 'Alexandr Binda' if Alexandr Binda advances against Lucas Poullain. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.