Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner
Ends: Aug 10, 2026, 24:15 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 22:17 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
RE.ARISE probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T19:57:56.084Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T20:08:12.568Z | 30.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T20:18:37.201Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T20:23:44.739Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T20:34:10.375Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T20:44:30.769Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T20:54:42.347Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T21:04:59.661Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T21:10:10.016Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T21:20:29.912Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T21:30:50.415Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T21:41:08.569Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T21:46:16.619Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T21:56:23.230Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T22:06:48.648Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T22:14:04.204Z | 0.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 1 match between RE.Arise and Ilbirs eSports in the Asgard Championship Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 9 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "RE.Arise" if RE.Arise win Game 2 against Ilbirs eSports. This market will resolve to "Ilbirs eSports" if Ilbirs eSports win Game 2 against RE.Arise. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.