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Economy · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Will the match end in a draw?

Ends: Aug 22, 2026, 24:30 UTCMarket data: Aug 17, 2026, 13:29 UTC

VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 21.5%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%19%38%56%75%
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Aug 16, 08:25 AMAug 16, 03:41 PMAug 16, 10:57 PMAug 17, 06:13 AMAug 17, 01:29 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-16T08:25:56.829Z46.0%-
2026-08-16T10:58:09.699Z49.0%-
2026-08-16T14:55:47.961Z46.0%-
2026-08-16T19:51:56.869Z45.0%-
2026-08-17T03:45:10.635Z46.5%-
2026-08-17T04:30:21.213Z37.5%-
2026-08-17T09:01:19.086Z16.5%-
2026-08-17T13:29:46.644Z21.5%-

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

FAIR PRICE CALCULATION

  • Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market refers to the cricket match between Sri Lanka and India scheduled for August 15 2026 in Test Match. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve to draw. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market will resolve to draw. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.