Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Polina Iatcenko vs Claire Liu
Ends: Aug 18, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 11, 2026, 23:12 UTCResult: CLAIRE LIUResolved: Aug 11, 2026, 23:06 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
POLINA IATCENKO probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11T18:29:34.210Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T19:06:07.688Z | 14.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T20:09:38.099Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T21:10:50.166Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T22:14:26.412Z | 0.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Polina Iatcenko and Claire Liu in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Polina Iatcenko' if Polina Iatcenko advances against Claire Liu. This market will resolve to 'Claire Liu' if Claire Liu advances against Polina Iatcenko. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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