Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T00:44:16.992Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:09:36.816Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:35:01.894Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:00:26.953Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:25:46.993Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:51:21.596Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:16:52.103Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:42:17.042Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:07:47.423Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:33:12.031Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:58:52.394Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:24:16.981Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:49:47.325Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:15:12.145Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:40:34.446Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:05:57.631Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:31:27.299Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:56:52.088Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:22:17.140Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:42:37.312Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:07:57.083Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:33:37.378Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:59:42.721Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:25:13.287Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:52.503Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:16:42.938Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:17.683Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:07:49.696Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:33:17.630Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:11.329Z | 57.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.