Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 12:10 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 09:17 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
AURORA probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T06:47:19.901Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T07:15:25.115Z | 38.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T08:15:17.986Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T09:17:20.096Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Aurora and GamerLegion in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against GamerLegion. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win Game 1 against Aurora. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.