Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 15, 2026, 15:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 15, 2026, 12:46 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
THEMONGOLZ probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15T09:19:18.234Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T09:24:28.358Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T09:30:25.146Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T09:40:53.787Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T09:49:04.180Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T10:00:55.364Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T10:06:06.693Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T10:16:55.420Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T10:27:06.945Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T10:32:22.777Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T10:42:47.061Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T10:53:00.304Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T11:01:42.916Z | 39.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T11:12:02.402Z | 37.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T11:22:18.992Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T11:31:17.731Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T11:36:18.962Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T11:46:33.974Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T11:56:48.754Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T12:04:51.455Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T12:15:00.459Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T12:25:15.256Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T12:30:23.913Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T12:42:08.914Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T12:46:22.056Z | 0.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between TheMongolz and Natus Vincere in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for August 15 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win Map 1 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against TheMongolz. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.